Sunday, June 04, 2006
By Brad Bannon
Usually it’s “all politics is local” but this year, it may be that “all politics is national”.
The national public opinion climate looks pretty bleak for Republicans. Only one out of every three Americans approve of George W. Bush’s performance as President. Two out of every three Americans believe that the United States is off on the wrong track. The approval rating for the GOP controlled Congress is even lower than the President’s rating as only a quarter of the public give thumbs up to the folks on Capitol Hill. What does this mean for Republicans up and down the ballot this year? Big Trouble.
Find out more after the jump…
Historically, national public opinion is only a small part of the equation in off year elections. In most cases, voters in each congressional district vote ignore the big national issues and vote on the basis of their feelings towards their own congressman or congresswoman and conditions locally.
But this year, the problems facing the voter are national or international problems like Iraq, gasoline prices and corruption in Washington. These are issues that might nationalize what are usually local elections and the national prevailing winds are blowing Democratic.
This is one of the rare years when all politics might even be international. This is a year when the election is more about guns than it is butter and normally that would be a big advantage for the GOP. Since 9/11 national security has been at the top of the voter priority list.
In 2002 and in 2004, the Bush campaign has been able to raise fears about terrorism and convert those concerns into Republican votes. But this year, voters are focusing on the War in Iraq and that is bad news for Republicans.
Recent national polls indicate that the war in Iraq is doing to George W. Bush what the Vietnam War did to Lyndon Baines Johnson. A clear majority of Americans now believe that it was a mistake to go to war against Iraq. More than half of the American public also thinks that the President lied to them about the presence of weapons of mass destruction.
Troop withdrawals before Election Day will help the GOP but as long as troop casualties mount and expenditures increase, Americans are ready to go through the roof in November.
Other issues seem so intractable to voters that they just might want to vent their anger against the governing party just to make themselves feel better. Besides Iraq, the rising price of gasoline is a major voter worry. And voters link energy prices with instability in the Middle East, so the price of gasoline is where the rubber meets the road at the intersection of foreign affairs and domestic policy.
Because of the ties between the oil companies and the President and the Vice President, Americans have little confidence that the Republican Party can do anything to decrease gas prices. High gas prices will drive many Americans to the polls (if they can afford to get there) to vote against Republican candidates
National polls indicate that Americans agree with Lord Acton’s axiom that “power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” And since Republicans control the White House and both houses of Congress, voters are ready to accept the culture of corruption argument that the Democrats are trying to sell.
The corruption argument is not the biggest problem facing Republicans but it does fuel the voter appetite for change. The corruption issue could become stronger if Democrats are able to link increases in energy and health care prices to the cozy relationships that Republicans have with corporate lobbyists in Washington.
But an analysis of the national surveys indicates that the biggest problem facing the Republican Party is the Republican Party. Recent national polls are showing that many Republicans and Conservatives do not approve of the performances of their own President and their own party. The disapproval of the Republican base is a function of unhappiness with the administration’s failure to control rising budget deficits and illegal immigration.
Turnout is low in mid term elections and therefore the outcome in November will hinge on the ability of each party to turn out its partisans. And right now the national surveys indicate that Republicans feel alienated and disinclined to vote. If Republicans fail to vote and Democrats turn out en masse, the effects on the GOP could be devastating all the way down to the local level.
Six months before the election, Democrats have a double digit lead over Republicans in national generic trial heats and that reflects the interest in the elections among Democratic partisans and the disdain that many Republicans feel towards supporting the policies of their own President and party in the mid term elections.
There are factors that could mitigate the anti Republican tide. Because of their ties to corporate America, Republicans have a big financial advantage. The redistricting that the Republicans have been able to do in the last decade has created a congressional battlefield that is favorable to the GOP.
Amy Walters of the Cook Political Report has suggested that the GOP has built a protective levee system that might save the party from a force three hurricane. The problem is that the national public opinion environment is shaping up as a force four or five storm.
Over the years, I have learned the hard way that public opinion can stop and turn on a dime. But Republicans have to hope that something dramatic happens before Election Day to avoid massive GOP losses.
The situation in Iraq appears to be intractable and it doesn’t look like gasoline prices will go down anytime soon. But the biggest problem for the Republicans is that their standard bearer, the President, doesn’t have much credibility with voters because of his assertions about the presence of WMD’s in Iraq before the start of the war.
And because voters don’t trust the president, he can talk until he turns blue in the face to try to reverse GOP fortunes but voters just don’t believe him anymore.
Brad Bannon is president of Bannon Communications Research which polls for Democratic candidates, labor unions and issue groups.
