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By Brad Bannon
For a number of reasons, state and local governments will be on their own trying to solve some of the most pressing problems facing the nation. Washington D.C. is focused on the war in Iraq. We have a presidential administration that believes in state and local government problem solving and it’s hard to get anything done inside the Beltway with the partisan divide between Congress and the White House.
Here are some of the issues that are likely to come up in state and local campaigns in 2008 in order of importance. |
Beyond The Beltway – Issues In State and Local Politics
August 22, 2007High Tech and High Touch: The Use of Polls and Focus Groups in Political Campaigns
July 9, 2007April 2006
By Brad Bannon
Survey research is more than numbers; it is about words and feelings. For this reason, survey research should be about focus groups and not just polls.
In political research, polling and focus groups should go together like a horse and carriage. But, often the only kind of research that campaigns conduct is a poll. Polls serve an important need in politics but they are rigid, structured and formal.
If a political campaign is an effort to build a candidate and win an election, the information from the poll would provide the skeleton and the focus groups would supply the skin. Conducting a poll without doing focus groups is a lot like having an ice cream sundae without the whipped cream topping. Read the rest of this entry »
A Consumers’ Guide To Getting The Most Out Of Your Poll
July 9, 2007Friday, September 03, 2004
By: Brad Bannon
After years of struggle, the campaign industry has reached a point, I hope, where just about everybody in the business understands the necessity of polling. But what still is a fight is the question of how to use the poll after you take the time, trouble and money to conduct one.
After 25 years in this business, it still amazes me how little use people make of the polling they do. I now use the time I spent trying to convince people to poll trying to get them to use the poll to make tactical and strategic decisions after campaigns conduct a survey.
There are good and bad reasons to conduct political surveys. Read the rest of this entry »
Brad Bannon: Elections are easy, now comes the hard part for Democrats
June 21, 2007Nov 10, 2006 5:00 AM
by Brad Bannon, The Examiner
WASHINGTON – Democrats should enjoy their honeymoon because it won’t last very long. Public opinion is as fuckle as a celebrity marriage, and the Democratic victory on Tuesday will create problems, as well as possibilities, for the party.
Read more after the jump… Read the rest of this entry »
Brad Bannon: It started with a kiss
June 21, 2007Aug 7, 2006 5:00 AM
by Brad Bannon, The Examiner
WASHINGTON – The Democratic primary in Connecticut for United States Senate between the incumbent Joe Lieberman and his challenger Ned Lamont on Aug. 8 and is much more important than any other primary election this year. Any race for the United States Senate is high stakes poker to begin with, but this Senate race has profound implications for the balance of power in the Democratic Party now and for the 2008 campaign for president. Read the rest of this entry »
Public Wants Demonstrated Leadership As Democrats Take Control of Congress
June 21, 2007Thursday, June 21st, 2007
By Brad Bannon
When sailors navigate, they look to the stars. When politicians legislate, they look to the polls. But sometimes, the sky is cloudy and often polls are contradictory. Then you have to go with your gut.
The new Democratic congressional majority has already done a lot to repair the image of a Congress that fell into disrepute under Republic control, but the Democrats still have a lot of work to do. Read the rest of this entry »
Red Faces and Exit Poll Blues
June 21, 2007June 21st, 2007
Wednesday, December 01, 2004
By Brad Bannon
The good news for the polling industry was that the national telephone surveys conducted over the days leading up to the presidential election reflected the actual election result with most of them showing President Bush with a slim lead over his Democratic challenger John Kerry. The bad news is that the post-election exit polls conducted after the Americans had voted were way off.
Even in an imperfect world, a post-election survey should reflect the actual results better than a pre election survey.
In a pre-election survey, the pollster faces several problems. First, you have to find people to talk to which is a major problem when you’re trying to call people at home on land lines. Once you reach the person at the phone number from your sample, you have to figure out if the person you’re talking to (a.k.a., the respondent) is actually someone who is going to vote which in itself is a matter of some difficulty. People also might change their minds during the time period leading up to the election.
More after the jump…
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Polls . . . Polls . . . Polls . . . Lots of Numbers But What do the Professionals Look At?
June 21, 2007Friday, August 06, 2004
By Brad Bannon
Watching the polls is not nearly as interesting as watching Catherine Zeta Jones but it is an election year and a presidential election year at that and we are political professionals so we should be keeping close tabs on the national political surveys. And if we use the national polls to understand the presidential race, we should use them for good not for evil. The biggest problem with the national political surveys conducted by news organizations is the reliance and the prominence of the trial heats. The head to heads are the first and sometimes only thing that the sponsors report. But if you really want to understand the public opinion environment that governs the presidential race, you have to go to the poll websites to look under the hood and kick the tires.
Read more after the jump…
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In 2006, All Politics Has Become National and That Bodes Badly for the Republicans
June 21, 2007Sunday, June 04, 2006
By Brad Bannon
Usually it’s “all politics is local” but this year, it may be that “all politics is national”.
The national public opinion climate looks pretty bleak for Republicans. Only one out of every three Americans approve of George W. Bush’s performance as President. Two out of every three Americans believe that the United States is off on the wrong track. The approval rating for the GOP controlled Congress is even lower than the President’s rating as only a quarter of the public give thumbs up to the folks on Capitol Hill. What does this mean for Republicans up and down the ballot this year? Big Trouble.
Find out more after the jump…
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The Polls Speak but the Polls Aren’t Listening As Public, Political Perceptions & Goals Differ
June 21, 2007Sunday, July 03, 2005
By Brad Bannon
At the national, state and local level there are a lot of angry voters these days and a lot of that anger is a function of the chasm between the issues that politicians talk about and the problems that voters worry about.
Current events in Washington DC illustrate the problem. While members in Congress fiddle with the fates of Terry Schiavo and faceless figures like John Bolton and Priscilla Owen, Americans focus on the two big issues of the day- the economy and Iraq.
MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM
War in Iraq 19%
Economy/Jobs 19%
Terrorism 7%
Social Security 5%
More after the jump…
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